Greggs has warned that full-year profits will come in below last year’s level, after scorching June temperatures dented footfall and overall sales — sending the high street bakery’s shares tumbling by over 13 per cent in early Wednesday trading.
The sausage roll maker told investors that total sales in the first half of the year rose 6.9 per cent to £1.3 billion, while like-for-like sales edged up by just 2.6 per cent. But the firm admitted that momentum slowed significantly in June as Britain sweltered through record-breaking heat, reducing the number of customers visiting its stores.
Although cold drink sales improved in the hot weather, Greggs said overall demand was weaker than expected, particularly for its core baked products. England experienced its hottest June on record last month, with average temperatures reaching 16.9°C — the UK’s second hottest since records began in 1884.
In a trading update, the FTSE 250 company said: “Very high temperatures reduced overall footfall, leading to a modest shortfall in sales relative to our plan.”
As a result, Greggs now expects operating profit for 2025 to be “modestly” below last year’s level. The firm also flagged that cost pressures remain elevated, with wage costs, refurbishment investment and higher employer national insurance contributions all weighing on margins.
The update comes as Greggs presses ahead with its store expansion and refurbishment programme, having opened 87 new stores so far this year and on track for 140 to 150 net openings by year-end. It also completed 108 shop refits in the first half of 2025, with another 50 expected before the year’s close.
Despite these investments, analysts have grown increasingly cautious. Panmure Liberum reiterated its ‘sell’ rating and cut its profit before tax forecast by 8 per cent, citing a slowdown in sales volumes and a lack of traction from new initiatives.
“Strategic moves such as evening trading and delivery continue to show limited momentum,” analysts warned, adding that increasing store overlap and “cannibalisation” could make it harder for Greggs to deliver the sustained volume growth needed to offset rising costs.
Greggs has recently extended late-night trading hours at selected outlets, with some locations now open until 2am, as part of a strategy to capture a wider customer base beyond its traditional breakfast and lunchtime core.
Mark Crouch, analyst at eToro, said the brand may be “feeling the heat, but not in the way it hoped”, noting that its affordability appeal may no longer be enough to sustain growth during a cost-of-living squeeze.
“Sure, it’s harder to sell a hot sausage roll in a heatwave,” said Crouch. “But a stretched consumer may be part of the bigger picture.”
Greggs’ share price has fallen nearly 30 per cent in the year to date and is now down 37 per cent from its August 2023 peak, reflecting growing investor concern over slowing growth and inflationary headwinds.
The company said its cost inflation outlook for the rest of 2025 remains unchanged.
