FEED PRICES could fall, with follow-on effects on meat prices, as US producers scramble for new markets for their grain and soy after China retaliated against US tariffs, industry representatives said.
“The US may have excess soya production, which may cause their prices to drop further,” National Federation of Hog Farmers, Inc. Vice-President Alfred Ng said via Viber.
“This will definitely benefit our livestock sector as feed prices will be further reduced,” he added.
China last week retaliated against the sweeping US tariffs, imposing additional duties of 34% on all American goods, on top of the 10-15% duties imposed on $21 billion worth of agricultural trade in early March, according to Reuters.
Currently, soybean meal imports from the US are charged a 1-3% Philippine tariff, according to Mr. Ng.
“We do not think the Philippine government will retaliate (after the US imposed a 17% tariff on Philippine exports) so we will keep them low for US soya,” he said.
In effect, this will lower the cost of local production, “encouraging more agriculture and livestock output,” he added.
The US Soybean Export Council earlier said Philippine soybean meal imports from the US may decline this year as African Swine Fever dampens swine production.
Meat Importers and Traders Association President Jess C. Cham said the US tariff regime may reduce demand in other countries, “resulting in more supply for other countries including the Philippines.”
“On the demand side, if our exports fall, there may be less consumption,” he said.
Mr. Cham said China is a major market for soybean meal and that “if tariffs make its imports less affordable, then exporters will have to look for other markets.”
The Department of Agriculture recently urged farmers to increase the hog population by a “minimum” of 2 million heads each year through 2028.
Livestock and poultry account for about a quarter of agricultural output and provide livelihoods for over 2.8 million farmers. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza
