Two trusted and independent polling firms conducted surveys, both in December 2025, to gauge Filipinos’ sentiment on our giant neighbor China.
In the Stratbase-commissioned Pulse Asia survey, a mere 11% of respondents cited China when asked which country they trusted and thought the Marcos administration should work with in asserting our rights and protecting our national interest in Philippine seas.
Meanwhile, the OCTA survey showed that only 13% of adult Filipinos say the Philippines should trust China. Moreover, about 79% of adult Filipinos see China as the greatest threat; this higher than the 74% registered in July 2025.
In both surveys, the gap between distrust and trust is wide and consistent across regions and socio-economic groups.
Public sentiment has been shaped by China’s pattern of behavior in recent years in the West Philippine Sea. Through numerous incidents that insulted and endangered our fisherfolk and frontline military personnel in our waters, China has demonstrated its lack of regard for international law. At the same time, China has been relentless in maligning Philippine government officials, who are only doing their jobs defending what has been established as ours, in the online information space.
Indeed, almost 10 years after the landmark ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the Philippines’ petition, China has not only refused to accept the decision but continues to reject that the international body has jurisdiction over it. This refusal has emboldened China to repeatedly harass Philippine vessels, militarize maritime features in the West Philippine Sea, and openly defy the arbitral ruling.
Beyond these acts at sea, China’s hostility now extends into the online domain, where disinformation campaigns attempt to distort reality and manipulate public debate. China has sought to recast the narrative on social media by continuously and aggressively portraying the Philippines as the “provoker” in the West Philippine Sea, despite well-documented and verifiable facts showing otherwise. The arbitral ruling itself stands as clear proof of the falsity of China’s assertions.
China’s actions in our own seas must not be viewed as isolated incidents of adventurism. They form part of a long-standing and deliberate pattern of aggression that advances narrow interests at the expense of human lives, Philippine sovereign rights, and regional peace.
These actions also carry serious economic consequences. Persistent interference in Philippine waters has disrupted fishing operations and restricted access to traditional fishing grounds relied upon by coastal communities. Such disruptions threaten supply stability and risk driving higher costs across the entire value chain.
More broadly, continued interference prevents the Philippine economy from fully realizing the benefits of resources within its Exclusive Economic Zone. It constrains the exploration and development of the country’s blue economy, from offshore energy resources to marine-based industries and sustainable ocean enterprises.
This convergence of public opinion should not be dismissed as mere emotion or fleeting outrage. It reflects a growing national consensus grounded in lived experience, factual evidence, and a sober assessment of risk. Filipinos understand that this issue is not about choosing sides in a rivalry among major powers, but about defending what is rightfully ours and preserving our dignity as a sovereign nation.
Trust is built on behavior. Over the years, China has had repeated opportunities to demonstrate goodwill, restraint, and respect for international norms. Instead, its actions have steadily eroded confidence, not just among policymakers but among ordinary Filipinos who see the consequences unfold in their communities and livelihoods. This explains why skepticism cuts across age, income, and geography.
Importantly, this public sentiment aligns the Philippines with the broader international community that upholds freedom of navigation, peaceful dispute resolution, and respect for international law. Our position is neither radical nor provocative. It is consistent with global norms and with responsible state behavior.
In this sense, public opinion serves as both a warning and a guide. It warns against complacency, equivocation, and false promises of accommodation. At the same time, it guides policymakers toward a foreign policy rooted in principle, strategic clarity, and long-term national interest rather than fear or short-term expediency.
Given all these, what must be done?
Philippine officials speaking out against China’s actions are not escalating tension. The narrative is often twisted when, in truth, it is China’s persistent violations of international law and Philippine sovereignty that create and escalate tensions.
The government should therefore sustain and further scale up its transparency strategy to strengthen public awareness. Consistent disclosure of developments in the West Philippine Sea has proven essential in countering disinformation, exposing false narratives, and enabling Filipinos to make informed judgments based on facts rather than distortion.
The Philippine government must remain resolute in safeguarding sovereignty, protecting Filipino communities, and ensuring that not a single inch of Philippine territory is yielded to any foreign power.
The people have spoken. Filipinos expect our leaders to be courageous, unwavering, and undeterred in upholding the rules-based order and, above all, in defending national sovereignty.
Victor Andres “Dindo” C. Manhit is the president of the Stratbase ADR Institute.
