By Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel
THE PHILIPPINES’ agricultural production is estimated to have grown modestly in 2025 as gains in poultry and crop output likely offset the decline in livestock and fisheries, analysts said.
Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar told BusinessWorld that he estimated agriculture output to have expanded by about 2% in 2025.
If this projection is realized, it will be a reversal from the 2.2% decline in farm output recorded in 2024.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported an agricultural output of P1.72 trillion in 2024, down from P1.76 trillion a year earlier.
“Overall, for the 2025 performance of the agriculture sector, there is potentially an increase in output year on year. The crops and poultry subsector will have positive growth as compared to the negative growth of livestock and fisheries,” Mr. Dar said in a Viber message.
Former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adriano said a higher full-year output in 2025 can be attributed to relatively better weather conditions.
“My sense is that agriculture performed better in 2025 compared to 2024, which saw a series of devastating typhoons and flooding,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.
Meanwhile, Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, said agriculture output is likely lower or flat in the fourth quarter of 2025.
According to PSA data, agricultural output in the fourth quarter of 2024 fell 1.95% to P484.59 million from P494.25 million a year earlier.
“I think it will basically be the same story — lower or stagnant output, with only the poultry sector as the bright spot. I think palay (unmilled rice) and corn will be down,” he told BusinessWorld via Viber.
Mr. Montemayor said the low farmgate prices of palay and corn last year likely discouraged farmers, leading to a reduced crop output.
Palay and corn account for about 27% of the Philippines’ total crop output.
Data from the PSA showed that palay production in the fourth quarter of 2025 fell by 5.21% to 6.85 million metric tons (MMT) from 7.23 MMT a year earlier.
POULTRY GROWTHFor both fourth-quarter and annual output, analysts project a strong turnout for the poultry subsector and declines in livestock and fisheries output.
Elias Jose M. Inciong, chairman of the United Broiler Raisers Association, told BusinessWorld that poultry output likely grew in the fourth quarter of 2025 from a year earlier.
“The reason would probably be an influx of new entrants to the industry,” he said in a Viber message.
For the livestock subsector, the African Swine Fever (ASF), a highly contagious viral disease lethal to swine and wild boars, likely continued to weigh down on production.
“ASF continues to be a problem not only in terms of casualties but also hesitance of hog raisers to repopulate because of the risk,” Mr. Montemayor said.
Meanwhile, Norberto O. Chingcuanco, a board member of the National Fisheries Research and Development Institute and co-convenor of Tugon Kabuhayan, said weather disruptions in the fourth quarter heavily affected fishery production.
“It was a good increase till Typhoon Uwan (international name: Fung-wong) hit us. A huge volume of fish escaped from sea cages,” he told BusinessWorld via Facebook Messenger in mixed English and Filipino
Data from the Department of Agriculture showed that Typhoon Uwan caused P83.66 million in damage to fisheries, with almost 21,000 metric tons of fishery commodities reported lost.
However, Mr. Chingcuanco said fishery output did not actually disappear or decline in terms of its contribution to national food security. Many of the fish that escaped from sea cages were later caught as community catch, which official statistics cannot track.
The PSA will release the 2025 fourth-quarter and full-year agriculture output data on Jan. 28, a day before the release of fourth-quarter and full-year preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) data on Jan. 29.
Agriculture output contributes about a tenth to GDP and a fourth of the country’s jobs.
