THE Philippines is considering raising the price cap on imported rice to P45 per kilogram when a higher tariff takes effect on Jan. 16, with a weaker peso and shifts in global prices driving up import costs.
This after rice imports to the Philippines fell to a four-year low of 3.37 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025 following a four-month import freeze that began in September, according to the Department of Agriculture (DA).
Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. said on Thursday that the approved 20% tariff rate is to be implemented on Jan. 16.
“The peso [depreciated on Wednesday against the US dollar] to about P59.35,” Mr. Laurel told a Palace briefing.
He said that if the exchange rate remains at that level by Jan. 16 — alongside a potential 5% increase in other cost factors — the government is likely to issue a new maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) of P45 per kilogram to reflect market realities.
The current MSRP for imported rice is P43 per kilogram.
A new MSRP will be announced on Jan. 15 and will depend on currency movements and international rice prices, Mr. Laurel said.
Beginning this year, the Philippines will resume rice imports under a “flexible” tariff system that allows duties to be adjusted in response to global price movements.
Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed that rice import volumes fell by 29.99% to 3.37 MMT from a record-high 4.81 MMT in 2024. The government banned rice imports from September to December.
This was the lowest volume of rice imports since the 2.77 MMT imported in 2021.
Despite the drop in imports, the DA said domestic rice prices remained relatively stable, indicating that earlier import volumes may have exceeded the country’s actual requirements.
“We’ve shown that even without imported rice, prices did not spike. This means the inflow was beyond what the country needs. Previous imports were excessive,” Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel V. De Mesa told reporters at a briefing in mixed English and Filipino.
Mr. De Mesa said rice imports are expected to arrive starting next week. “Because January to February is the lean season, we don’t have a harvest, so imported rice should really come in,” he said.
However, the DA expects overall import volumes to remain relatively low this year as it targets higher domestic palay (unmilled rice) output, supported by increased production assistance and assuming no major weather disruptions.
Mr. Laurel said imports in 2026 are projected at a minimum of 3.6 MMT and could reach as much as 3.8 MMT if estimated domestic palay production is at 20.3 MMT. The DA considers these levels sufficient to meet demand without depressing farmgate prices.
Meanwhile, Jayson H. Cainglet, executive director of the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura, said the government’s rice price cap is effectively an admission that tariff cuts failed to lower rice prices.
“The price cap (MSRP) is already an admission of the failure of tariff reduction to reduce rice prices,” he said via Viber.
Despite record-high imports in 2024 and a sharp drop of about 50% in global rice prices — alongside reduced tariffs — local retail rice prices barely fell, he noted.
Instead, Mr. Cainglet said, the impact was borne by farmers, with palay prices collapsing to P8-12 per kilo, well below production costs, while consumers saw only minimal relief and importers captured most of the gains.
The policy also led to at least P25 billion in foregone tariff revenues, he said.
Mr. Cainglet called for reinstating higher rice import tariffs, arguing that import liberalization has undermined domestic producers without delivering meaningful benefits to consumers. — Chloe Mari A. Hufana and Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel
