By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter
PHILIPPINE anti-corruption efforts risk losing their deterrent effect unless investigations begin to reach senior political and business figures, a failure that could further erode public trust and shape behavior within the government in the years ahead, an analyst said.
The public is less unsettled by the absence of arrests than by a pattern in which enforcement actions appear to stop short of individuals with real political or economic weight, political science professor at the University of Makati Ederson DT. Tapia said.
Unless that boundary shifts, accountability will continue to be perceived as conditional, he warned, raising doubts about how far future probes will go.
“People feel that, even if they don’t always articulate it in sophisticated and legal terms. There’s a quiet question that hangs in the air: up to where does accountability actually go?” he said via Facebook Messenger.
The country is probing a multibillion-peso flood control scandal after President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. exposed that high-ranking public officials have been colluding with private contractors to receive kickback money in return.
Only former Public Works officials and government contractors have so far been jailed since the President flagged anomalous flood control projects in August.
As climate risks intensify and infrastructure spending rise, Mr. Tapia said unresolved questions about responsibility could fuel deeper public skepticism.
That perception, if left unaddressed, may gradually alter how citizens and officials engage with institutions. Mr. Tapia said confidence may not collapse abruptly, but its slow erosion is expected, in which anti-corruption campaigns are increasingly viewed as symbolic.
Over time, this risks weakening their ability to deter misconduct as the government rolls out larger and more complex public works programs.
Mr. Tapia said political patronage and elite networks are likely to remain decisive factors, unless reforms disrupt the advantages of delay and distance from accountability.
Those with political and economic capital often do not need to interfere directly, he said, as prolonged investigations and procedural complexity can be enough to diffuse urgency and public pressure.
Looking ahead, Mr. Tapia warned that predictable enforcement outcomes could reshape incentives within the bureaucracy. Lower-level officials may continue to face immediate exposure, while those closer to power remain insulated, reinforcing an uneven risk landscape.
“Once that pattern becomes predictable, it stops deterring behavior,” he said. “It starts shaping it.”
For the government, Mr. Tapia said, the credibility of future anti-corruption drives will hinge on whether accountability visibly extends beyond familiar limits.
Without that shift, he warned, integrity may remain part of official rhetoric, but proximity to power will continue to be seen as the safer long-term strategy.
