Rachel Reeves has confirmed that she will deliver an early spring statement on 3 March, as the Treasury moves to restore confidence after a year in which prolonged tax speculation was blamed by businesses for weakening the UK economy.
In announcing the date, the Treasury said the chancellor had formally asked the Office for Budget Responsibility to prepare updated forecasts for the economy and the public finances. The move is intended to provide “stability and certainty” following widespread criticism of the extended build-up to November’s budget, which many business leaders said had stalled investment and hiring decisions.
Reeves has faced sustained criticism over the months of leaks, briefings and policy kite-flying that preceded the autumn budget, with economists and industry groups arguing that the uncertainty contributed to a downturn in consumer spending and a freeze in private sector activity. Official data later showed the economy unexpectedly contracted in October, while the Bank of England has warned that growth is close to flatlining at the end of the year.
Business surveys have also pointed to a sharp slowdown in activity around the turn of the year, with firms delaying spending decisions until greater clarity emerged on tax and regulatory changes. Economists said the uncertainty was exacerbated by the limited headroom Reeves initially left against her self-imposed fiscal rules, increasing the risk that even a modest deterioration in the public finance outlook could force further tax rises or spending cuts.
At the November budget, the chancellor sought to address those concerns by more than doubling her fiscal headroom to £22bn, arguing that the move would protect the public finances from future shocks and reduce the likelihood of sudden policy changes. She also signalled a shift in approach, confirming that the government would hold one major fiscal event a year.
Under that framework, the Treasury said it would respond to the OBR’s March forecasts with a formal statement to parliament rather than a full budget. Officials said the approach would help provide greater predictability for households and businesses, supporting the government’s wider growth agenda.
The spring forecasts are expected to be published before a permanent replacement is appointed for Richard Hughes, who stepped down as chair of the OBR after sensitive budget documents were accidentally published online ahead of Reeves’s November statement. Both the Treasury and the OBR are continuing internal investigations into the leak.
Reeves has previously acknowledged the damage caused by speculation in the run-up to the autumn budget and has pledged to improve discipline around fiscal announcements. Setting an early March date is seen within Whitehall as an attempt to draw a clear line under that episode and to reset relations with businesses and financial markets ahead of the new financial year.