IMF lowers Philippine growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 – BusinessWorld Online
The Philippine economy is seen to grow below target until next year, following the recent slowdown in the third quarter, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.
In a statement for its Article IV Consultation with the Philippines, the IMF trimmed its economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.1% for 2025 from 5.4% previously. It also lowered its growth projection for the Philippines to 5.6% for 2026 from 5.7% previously.
If both projections hold true, the Philippines will miss its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for a fourth straight year. The National Government is targeting 5.5%-6.5% growth in 2025 and 6%-7% in 2026.
“The Philippines’ growth is expected to slow to 5.1% in 2025 as increasing tariffs weigh on exports and investment, before picking up moderately to 5.6% in 2026, a downward revision relative to previous forecasts due to sharper-than-expected slowdown in (the third quarter),” the IMF said in a statement on Monday.
The IMF also revised its inflation estimates for this year to 1.7% from 1.6% and for next year to 2.8% from 2.6%.
“Inflation declined amid a restrictive monetary policy stance and concerted efforts by the government to reduce food prices,” it said. “Inflation is projected to average 1.7% in 2025 then pick up to 2.8% in 2026 as negative base effects recede.” — Katherine K. Chan
