THE PHILIPPINE Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) could reach 7,600 this year, driven by improving economic conditions and a positive market outlook, according to First Metro Securities Brokerage Corp.
The brokerage’s broader target range for the PSEi this year is 6,600 to 8,600, First Metro Securities said in an e-mail statement on Tuesday.
Factors that could drive market momentum include the possible reduction of stock transaction taxes, which could boost market liquidity, an upgraded credit outlook, and higher domestic consumption ahead of the midterm elections, First Metro Securities said.
“We believe the market is positioned for a turnaround,” First Metro Securities First Vice-President and Equity Research Division Head Reuben Mark A. Angeles said during the brokerage’s recent Trader’s Playbook 2025 online market briefing.
“With inflation easing, economic data improving, and monetary policy becoming more accommodative, the business cycle is shifting from a slowdown to early recovery,” he added.
On Tuesday, the PSEi fell by 0.81% or 49.37 points to 5,987.75. This was the PSEi’s lowest close in 14 months, since the 5,973.78 finish on Oct. 31, 2023.
The broader All Shares Index likewise declined by 0.28% or 10.24 points to 3,607.03.
The PSEi closed 2024 in negative territory as the main index dropped by 0.15% or 10.23 points to 6,528.79.
Year-on-year, the PSEi’s 2024 close was higher by 1.2% or 78.75 points from its 6,450.04 finish in 2023, marking the first time the bellwether index closed higher since 2019.
First Metro Securities said it sees emerging structural growth opportunities with the Luzon Economic Corridor, which positions Clark, Pampanga, as a future economic hub.
It added that investment themes for 2025 include early-cycle recovery, midterm election plays, greater artificial intelligence (AI) adoption, and companies positioned to benefit from AI-driven efficiency gains.
“Despite global uncertainties, First Metro Securities believes the Philippines remains resilient due to its domestically driven economy, ample reserves, and strong geopolitical ties with the US. While Trump’s policies introduce some risks, many of these concerns have already been priced into valuations,” it said.
Ser Percival K. Peña-Reyes, director of the Ateneo Center for Economic Research and Development, said at the briefing that the country’s gross domestic product growth could reach 6% this year, supported by improving fundamentals.
However, he warned that sustained growth should come from “meaningful investments rather than short-term election-driven spending.”
“We want spending to have a lasting impact, creating jobs and strengthening industries rather than fueling temporary consumption,” he said.
Mr. Peña-Reyes added that the country’s inflation rate is expected to remain within the Philippine central bank’s 2-4% target range.
First Metro Securities offers equity brokerage services and solutions to individuals and corporations. It is backed by First Metro Investment Corp. and Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave
