By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio and Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporters
THE GOVERNMENT of President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. is likely considering letting the country’s justice system deal with Vice-President (VP) Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio’s alleged misuse of secret funds, delaying her impeachment process after the midterm elections, analysts said over the weekend.
“Since it was not acted upon by the House leadership from the first impeachment complaint that was filed, [it seems] they opted to take the criminal charges route,” Arjan P. Aguirre, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook messenger Chat.
Ms. Duterte has been slapped with a slew of ouster raps at the House of Representatives, with three impeachment complaints accusing the embattled vice-president of failing to account for more than P600 million worth of confidential and intelligence funds (CIF) in 2022 and 2023.
The Office of the Vice-President did not immediately respond to an e-mail seeking comment.
Ephraim B. Cortez, president of the National Union of Peoples’ Lawyers, said that Ms. Duterte could be held criminally liable for plunder and falsification of public documents in relation to her disbursements of secret funds. Congressmen earlier unveiled that fictitious identities were used as CIF recipients.
He said complaints could be filed with the Ombudsman, the country’s anti-graft body responsible for investigating and prosecuting government officials accused of graft, corruption and other crimes.
It is currently headed by Ombudsman Samuel R. Martires, with his term set to end in August 2025.
“The new Ombudsman should not be afraid of going against the Dutertes,” said Mr. Aguirre.
Mr. Cortez said Ms. Duterte could simultaneously face ouster proceedings and Ombudsman complaints.
“The proceedings in the Ombudsman are for the purpose of determining criminal liability. Impeachment on the other hand is a constitutional process for the removal of an impeachable officer, like the vice-president,” he said.
Meanwhile, Mr. Aguirre noted that lawmakers may have opted for the “riskier” route of deliberating the impeachment complaints after the midterm elections due to the lack of urgency from the House leadership to act on the impeachment complaints.
The House first deliberates impeachment complaints, requiring one-third of its members, or at least 103 congressmen, to find the ouster allegations with merit before the case is elevated to the Senate for trial.
“Looking at the calendar, the timeline for an impeachment process to happen became tight since Congress is now in recess,” he said. “They are also having another break in February in preparation for the midterms.”
The Philippine Congress went on recess for its Christmas break on Dec. 21, resuming again on Jan. 13 for its final leg of session before the midterm polls in May 2025. Lawmakers would then go on break for four months in preparation for the upcoming election.
Incumbent officials will have the looming impeachment complaint against Ms. Duterte hanging over their heads amid their re-election campaign, said Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at De La Salle University.
“Before the elections, the impeachment process will force prospective candidates to canvas their constituencies and determine how many remain loyal, or at least supportive of the Dutertes,” he said in a separate Facebook chat.
“The results of such can help sway the actions of concerned lawmakers and the prospective candidates among them,” he added.
Mr. Borja noted that congressmen are relatively insulated from the repercussions of supporting or opposing Ms. Duterte’s impeachment. Senators, however, bear the brunt of the decision, as the feud between the Marcos and Duterte camps is “at the national level.”
Ouster raps against Ms. Duterte come against the backdrop of a widening political rift between two of the country’s most influential political clans. The falling out of the Dutertes and Marcoses has resulted in the collapse of what was once a formidable electoral alliance that delivered them landslide wins in the 2022 elections.
DECLINING TRUST RATINGMs. Duterte and House Speaker Martin G. Romualdez emerged as the biggest losers in Pulse Asia Survey Research, Inc.’s most recent approval and trust rating.
Ms. Duterte’s trust rating in November declined by 12 points to 61% from 49% in September, while her approval score fell to 50% from 60%.
Her trust rating was still highest in Mindanao at 81%, but this was a 9 percentage-point decline from 90% in September. Her rating in Visayas also plunged to 47% from 74%.
Her trust rating fell to 34% from 37% in the capital region. It declined in Luzon areas outside Metro Manila to 37% from 47%.
Mr. Aguirre cited Ms. Duterte’s “numerous meltdowns” that have been well discussed on social media and in the news cycle.
“The accusations too that VP Sara is using government resources for her presidential ambition might also be affecting her in a negative way,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
The Vice-President’s approval rating in Mindanao also plunged to 80% from 93% and saw a 20-percentage point decline in the Visayas at 51%.
Her approval ratings in Balance Luzon and Metro Manila fell to 40% from 46% and to 34% from 36%, respectively.
In the survey, Mr. Romualdez continued to be the least trusted among the top four Philippine officials, with only 21% or 1 in 5 Filipinos saying they trust him. This was down from 31% in September.
His distrust rating was higher at 35%, up from 25% two months earlier.
In the Visayas, his supposed bailiwick, his trust rating declined by 14-percentage point, while his distrust rating rose by 24 points.
His approval rating in Visayas also went down by 7 percentage points, while his disapproval rating rose by 8 percentage points.
“The equally drastic increase of disapproval towards Speaker Romualdez indicates the relative insulation of the president from the political duels between the VP and the House,” Mr. Borja.
He said the survey results were not necessarily good for the Marcos administration because for one, “the approval and disapproval for both the President and the Vice-President are statistically tied with both experiencing increasing levels of disapproval.”
The President’s trust rating declined by three percentage points to 47% in November from 50% in September.
His approval rating dropped by two percentage points to 48% from 50%.
While the President’s approval rating saw a 12-percentage point decline in Mindanao, it rose by 4 percentage points in Luzon.
“The president must not be seen as dealing with anything else other than the most pertinent issues on economic welfare and public service. To this end,” Mr. Borja said.
Hansley A. Juliano, who teaches politics at the Ateneo, said Ms. Duterte has “failed to control the narrative against her, and the media cycle continues to be about how every major political actor in Congress is out to get her.”
“Considering her stances and her seeming unwillingness to take accountability for anything, these declines are predictable,” he added in a Messenger chat.
In the survey, which has a margin error of 2% at the 95% confidence level, Pulse interviewed 2,400 adults.